The major political parties and leaders of Nepalese politics had been chanting ‘Mission 2084’ until some time ago. The parliament formed after the 2079 general election was expected to complete its five-year term and the next election would be held in 2084 BS. But politics doesn’t always take the way it does. The unprecedented and violent movement of the ‘Gen Z’ i.e. New Generation in August completely changed the political course of the country. The two-day agitation and the dramatic events that followed have pushed Nepal into the electoral fray almost two years early. This is the reason why voting is taking place only for the House of Representatives on March 4. Prime Minister Sushila Karki, while assessing the election atmosphere in the Pathivara region of eastern Nepal, described the election as a “special opportunity to chart the future of the country and give a way out”. This time the election is different from the previous two elections as it does not include the provincial assembly, which has added to its uniqueness and seriousness.
Genji Movement: From social media to shaking the foundations of power
In the wake of this election, the revolt of the ‘Genji’ youth has emerged as a major factor. According to former Chief Election Commissioner Surya Prasad Shrestha, the primary objective of the election is to “end the rebellion” seen in August and give constitutional stability to the country. The immediate starting point of the movement was the ban on social media and the curtailment of freedom of expression. However, its roots are much deeper. The youth not only made it a matter of technology, but also presented it as a campaign against good governance, anti-corruption and the anti-nepotism that is prevalent in the state apparatus. The new generation, tired of rising unemployment and economic inequality, is seeing this election as a fight for their existence and rights. Therefore, it is certain that the emotions and anger of the younger generation will dominate the agenda of this election more than the traditional ones.
Voter figures: 900,000 new power and gender gap
The latest data released by the Election Commission indicates the emergence of a new force in Nepali politics. A total of 1,89,03,689 voters are eligible to vote this time, which is 915,119 more than the general election of 2079. The bulk of this addition is mainly from the new generation of young people who have reached the age of 18. Another issue of concern is the gender ratio of the electorate. Although the census 2078 shows that the population of women is 51.1 percent, the number of males in the voters’ list is more than 9.65 million while the number of females is around 9.25 million. This gap of nearly 4 lakh shows that there are still challenges in women’s participation and registration. Province-wise, Bagmati Province has over 36.82 lakh voters, while Karnali has the lowest number of voters at 10.37 lakh, which indicates that Bagmati will play a decisive role in the election results.
Crowd of candidates: Interesting arithmetic of direct and proportional{
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More than 6,000 candidates are in the fray for both the first-past-the-post and proportional representation (PR) systems this time. A total of 3,406 candidates have filed their candidacies under the direct system, of which only 388 are underrepresented by women. The number of candidates in the age group of 41 to 60 years is 1,925, which is the highest. Similarly, under the proportional representation category, 3,135 candidates from 63 political parties are in the closed list. There are 1,772 females in the proportional representation list, more than males at 91,3630. According to former Chief Election Commissioner Shrestha, this time the political parties have tried to put forward young faces even if they are compelled, because it has become a mandatory condition for them to break the disgust towards the older generation.
Tight security cordon and looted weapons
This election is not taking place normally. There is still an atmosphere of fear across the country due to the inmates who escaped from jail during the August agitation and the looted weapons. Therefore, the state has to pay special attention to security arrangements this time. According to Nepal Police Spokesperson Abinarayan Kafle, out of 10,967 polling stations across the country, 3,680 have been categorised as ‘very sensitive’ while 4,442 as ‘sensitive’. The security agencies have prepared a special strategy keeping in mind the geographical remoteness, open borders and possible communal or political violence. Due to this additional security vigilance and special circumstances, the financial burden of this election on the state treasury will be much higher than in the previous elections, which economists see as challenging.
Participation of parties and electoral strategy
Of the 137 political parties registered at the Commission, only 66 are actively participating in the first-past-the-post (HoR) and 57 under the proportional representation (PR) system. The interesting thing is that the Nepali Congress has become the only party to file candidacy in all the 165 constituencies. Other parties have fielded candidates based on their areas of influence, while 8 parties have fielded candidates in each constituency. The preponderance of small and independent candidates has posed a major challenge to the larger parties. While the candidates are trying to cash in on the sentiments created by the August uprising, voters have given priority to political stability and protecting the constitutional order.
Finally,
Judgment on February 21
This election is taking place in an extraordinary and complex situation in Nepal’s history. It is a great democratic exercise to quell social media outrage and street uprisings through ballot papers. The international community is also concerned about where this election will take the country amidst high security risks, economic burden and strong aspirations of the youth. It remains to be seen whether voters will reap the old power or opt for a new change. Therefore, we will have to wait for the election day on March 21 to know the real result of all these political equations, the tactics of the parties and the security preparedness of the state, and to see the future decision of the country.
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