Rise and New Hope in Madhesh
KATHMANDU — A new and powerful wave has emerged in the politics of Madhes with the announcement of former mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City, Balendra Shah (Balen), as the prime ministerial candidate. Balen, who once did not like to identify himself as ‘Madhesi’, started his first election meeting from Janakpur and addressed it in the local Madhesi language, it gave a new hope to the urban youths of Madhes, especially the family members of foreign employment. At this time, the commentary of ‘Madhesi Chhaura Prime Minister’ (Madhesi boy Prime Minister) in Madhes has awakened a different self-respect in the community and has filled the youth with new enthusiasm. This craze was created by Upendra Yadav during the movement of 2064 BS and Dr. Yadav during the 2079 elections. Some believe that the attraction towards CK Raut is more than that. However, there is a huge contradiction and challenge between Balen’s personal popularity and the background of the candidates fielded by the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) in Madhes.
Past and Present Assessment of RSP
In the 2079 BS parliamentary elections, the position of the RSP in Madhes Province was very weak. The party, which could not win any first-past-the-post (FPTP) seats, was reduced to the eighth position in the proportional representation category. Madhes was the weakest constituency for the RSP when it was in the third or fifth position among other provinces across the country. But this time, after Balen was fielded as the prime ministerial candidate, it is claimed that the attraction towards the RSP has increased in Madhes, but the faces of the candidates fielded by the party in all the 32 constituencies have raised questions about the slogan of good governance. The Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has given tickets to ‘opportunistic’ and ‘evergreen’ candidates in 21 constituencies of Madhes who have left other parties or changed parties every election, which is called ‘Palturam’ at the local level.
Contradiction of ‘Genji’ agenda and candidate selection
Although the RSP claims to raise the voice of ‘Gen Z’ i.e. the new generation, the party’s decision in the selection of candidates has raised questions. Candidate from Saptari-3 Dr. Amarkant Chaudhary is the son of former state minister Chandra Kanta Chaudhary. Similarly, in Saptari-4, the party has fielded the former mayor’s son-in-law and nephew. Ram Binod Yadav, a candidate from Dhanusha-2, has been jailed for three years on the charge of murder. Fielding such controversial and nepotism-based characters as candidates has raised a big moral question on the slogan of ‘newness’ of the RSP.
Lack of organization and racial imbalance
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Although the caste equation seems to have been taken into consideration in the selection of the candidates of the RSP, the party’s organization in Madhes is very weak. In the absence of an organization, it will be difficult to convert Balen’s popularity into votes. To win the election in Madhes, a ‘wave’ alone is not enough, a strong cadre line is needed to take the voters to the booth. NC and UML are organizationally strong in Madhes. The RSP does not have a dedicated cadre at the booth level in Madhes. There is a risk that Balen’s ‘craze’ will not turn into votes due to the lack of manpower to secure it to the ballot box and protect the vote.
Internal conflict, Rabi Lamichhane and the opposition’s strategy
The management of internal conflict within the party is another tricky issue. Out of the 25 seats contested in the 2079 elections, only one candidate has been re-elected this time while the remaining 24 have been sidelined. Ignoring those who have suffered since the party’s inception has reduced their enthusiasm and there has been a lot of dissatisfaction on social media over the online forms and fees collected for the candidacy. The old party cadres are expressing anger that the ticket distribution was done due to lack of coordination between the leadership of the Balen group and the RSP, which could have a negative impact on the election results.
Madhesh issues and ethnic representation
The RSP has been accused of failing to address the issues of Madhes and not fully considering the ethnic representation in the selection of candidates. Although the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP) has made efforts to accommodate various castes of Madhes, the representation of Madhesi Dalit community is zero. Similarly, only two people from the 13 percent Muslim community are included. Dalits, Muslims and Madhesi people have not been able to feel their belongingness in the RSP by giving priority only to the hill and Madhesi upper caste groups. Likewise, Balen has tried to touch the Madhesi sentiments by garlanding the statue of Madhes movement martyr Ramesh Mahato.
Finally,
The arrival of Balen Shah in Madhes has given a big blow to the old political parties, but the challenges seen in the election field and the selection of controversial candidates do not make the path of the RSP easy. Balen will not only rely on his personal craze to convert his self-respect into votes in the name of ‘Madhesi Chaura’, he also has to devise a concrete strategy to adjust the caste equation, to dampen the dissatisfaction within the party and to break the siege of the opposition. If these organisational and strategic weaknesses are not rectified in time, Balen’s wave in Madhes will be limited to just one election stunt and the outcome of March 21 will prove to be very costly for him and his party.
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